The political tides in the United States are shifting once again, and with the return of the Trump administration in 2025, short-term rental (STR) hosts are left speculating about how Airbnb politics will evolve. From shifting economic policies to mounting regulatory challenges, decisions made in Washington could redefine the future of hosting—creating both obstacles and new opportunities for STR investors.
In this blog, we’ll explore lessons learned from Trump’s first administration, predictions for how his second term will impact the short-term rental market, and actionable strategies for STR hosts to stay ahead.
The First Trump Administration and Its Impact on STRs
Economic Policies That Shaped STR Demand
Trump’s first administration (2017–2021) saw major fiscal stimulus packages and tax reforms that boosted consumer spending, indirectly increasing demand for domestic travel and STR bookings. Reduced corporate taxes also encouraged real estate investment, creating a favorable environment for STR owners. However, rising property values and interest rates created barriers for new investors.
Immigration Policies and Hospitality Labor Shortages
Stricter immigration policies led to a reduced labor pool, impacting the availability of cleaning, property management, and guest services staff. As labor shortages drove up wages, STR hosts faced higher operational costs.
Federal Deregulation vs. Local STR Laws
While Trump pushed for deregulation across industries, local governments tightened STR regulations. Cities like New York and Los Angeles enacted stricter Airbnb laws, leading to reduced supply in urban areas. This decentralized regulatory landscape is likely to persist in a second Trump term.
How the Second Trump Administration Could Impact STRs
Economic Policies: Mortgage Rates & Investment Challenges
Interest rates are expected to remain elevated through 2025, making STR investments more challenging. Forecasts indicate 30-year mortgage rates will stay above 6%, doubling borrowing costs compared to pre-pandemic levels. This makes new STR investments less feasible, but existing property owners may benefit from stable demand.
Immigration Policies: Labor Market Squeeze
A continuation of Trump’s strict immigration stance could further reduce the labor force available for hospitality roles, increasing costs for STR hosts. Automating operations and optimizing efficiency will be key to maintaining profitability.
Housing Market Outlook
Housing prices remain high despite elevated mortgage rates, particularly in high-demand coastal and mountain regions. Prices are expected to plateau rather than decline, providing stability for existing property owners but limiting opportunities for new investors.
International Travel & Domestic Demand
The share of international travelers booking STRs in the U.S. is shrinking. Foreign guests are projected to account for only 11% of bookings in 2024, down from a peak of 16% in 2019. Notably, Chinese visitation to the U.S. has plummeted due to trade conflicts. STR hosts should prioritize targeting domestic travelers to sustain occupancy rates.
Strategies for STR Hosts to Stay Competitive
- Leverage Market Analytics
Use Airbnb-related data platforms to track trends, adjust pricing, and optimize occupancy rates. Data-driven decision-making will be crucial in a high-cost environment.
- Adapt to Domestic Travel Demand
With fewer international travelers, STR hosts should focus on marketing to U.S.-based guests. Offering family-friendly, pet-friendly, and remote-work-friendly accommodations can attract a wider audience.
- Automate & Optimize Operations
Given rising labor costs, implementing automation tools for guest communication, check-ins, and cleaning coordination can improve efficiency and reduce expenses.
- Diversify Property Investments
Expanding into smaller cities or rural areas can help mitigate the impact of urban regulations and local economic fluctuations. Consider alternative rental models like mid-term stays catering to digital nomads.
- Monitor Regulatory Changes
Stay informed about federal and local regulations impacting STRs. Proactively adapting to new compliance requirements can prevent disruptions to your business.
The Future of STRs in the Trump Era
The short-term rental industry is stabilizing after years of pandemic-driven volatility. While investment opportunities still exist, STR hosts must navigate rising costs, regulatory challenges, and shifting demand trends.
By leveraging automation, targeting domestic travelers, and staying ahead of economic trends, hosts can ensure long-term success in the evolving STR landscape. Marbella Lane remains committed to providing expert property management services, helping hosts adapt and thrive in any political or economic climate.
For more insights on maximizing your STR investment, stay tuned to our blog or contact Marbella Lane for expert property management solutions.